AI — monster or savior? How to strategically plan for its impact on business
One of the basic techniques of strategic planning is the development of scenarios. You survey the landscape and develop a list of “what ifs?” Then you calculate the probability of each scenario, design a plan to navigate it, and assign resources according to the probabilities. It’s not quite as easy as it sounds, but it’s a great way to discipline your thinking as you plan for the future.
Right now, there’s a frenzy of writing and talking about what AI means for the business world. I’ve been trying to make sense of it, so I decided to use scenario planning as a framework. Here are the scenarios I’ve been hearing about.
The frenzy over AI is mostly hype. It’s not that big a deal — just another new technological tool we will incorporate into how we work.
AI is a very useful tool that will improve people’s work lives. Much of the boring, repetitive work will be handled by machines, freeing people to do higher-level, more creative work. This will involve some disruption as jobs are reformulated, but retraining will enable people to work differently. Every prior technological invention has created more jobs than it has destroyed, and this will be the same.
AI will massively disrupt how we work in ways we can’t even envision yet. There will be huge economic and cultural upheaval.
AI will destroy humanity. This technology is developing so rapidly that it will soon surpass our ability to control it. We need immediate and massive regulation to stop or curtail its development.
I don’t yet have the data or perspective to assign probabilities to these scenarios. I’m an optimist by nature, so my instinct is to focus on scenarios 2 and 3. But I’m wise enough to know that my instinct is not the best guide, especially when many really smart thinkers are writing about scenario 4.
So, I don’t have an answer, but I do have advice.
Business leaders need to focus now on understanding what this very new and very rapidly developing technology means for their companies. You are probably already being swamped by advertisements for AI tools, and plenty of those ads are scams. Learning about AI requires a determined and fearless willingness to wade into material that is not easy to understand.
If you’d like to have a conversation about AI and business, get in touch with me at ggolden@gailgoldenconsulting.com
